{"id":4539,"date":"2026-07-30T21:53:47","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T18:53:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/overtonfx.ru\/blog\/?p=4539"},"modified":"2026-07-30T21:53:47","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T18:53:47","slug":"us-recession-risk-dashboard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/overtonfx.ru\/blog\/us-recession-risk-dashboard\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0420\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043c\u044f\u0433\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430: \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0442 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b \u0432 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0435 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">\u0421\u043e\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/overtonfx.ru\/blog\/us-recession-risk-dashboard\/#%D0%A0%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%8F_%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B8_%D0%BC%D1%8F%D0%B3%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BA%D0%B0_%D1%87%D1%82%D0%BE_%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%8F%D1%82_%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%8B_%D0%B2_%D1%81%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B5_2026\" >\u0420\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043c\u044f\u0433\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430: \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0442 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b \u0432 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0435 2026<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/overtonfx.ru\/blog\/us-recession-risk-dashboard\/#%D0%92%D0%92%D0%9F_%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82_15_-_%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B7_%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8\" >\u0412\u0412\u041f: \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442 1.5% - \u0431\u0435\u0437 \u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0438<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/overtonfx.ru\/blog\/us-recession-risk-dashboard\/#%D0%9A%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%B4%D0%BE%D1%85%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8_%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%8F_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8\" >\u041a\u0440\u0438\u0432\u0430\u044f \u0434\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438: \u0438\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0441\u0438\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0430\u0434\u0438<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/overtonfx.ru\/blog\/us-recession-risk-dashboard\/#%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BC%D1%8B%D1%88%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C_11_-_%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F\" >\u041f\u0440\u043e\u043c\u044b\u0448\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c: +1.1% - \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0433\u043d\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/overtonfx.ru\/blog\/us-recession-risk-dashboard\/#%D0%97%D0%B0%D1%8F%D0%B2%D0%BA%D0%B8_%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B8%D0%B5_203K_-_%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BC%D0%B0\" >\u0417\u0430\u044f\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043e\u0431\u0438\u0435: 203K - \u043d\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D0%A0%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%8F_%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B8_%D0%BC%D1%8F%D0%B3%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BA%D0%B0_%D1%87%D1%82%D0%BE_%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%8F%D1%82_%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%8B_%D0%B2_%D1%81%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B5_2026\"><\/span>\u0420\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043c\u044f\u0433\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430: \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0442 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b \u0432 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0435 2026<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<p class=\"lead\">\u0421 2022 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u0441\u0442\u044b \u0441\u043f\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0442: \u0436\u0434\u0451\u0442 \u043b\u0438 \u0421\u0428\u0410 \u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0424\u0420\u0421 \u0443\u0434\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043e\u0431\u0435\u0441\u043f\u0435\u0447\u0438\u0442\u044c &#171;\u043c\u044f\u0433\u043a\u0443\u044e \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0443&#187;? \u0418\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0441\u0438\u044f \u043a\u0440\u0438\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u0434\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438, \u043f\u0430\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u043c\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430 \u0438 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442 \u0437\u0430\u044f\u0432\u043e\u043a \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043e\u0431\u0438\u0435 \u043a\u0440\u0438\u0447\u0430\u043b\u0438 &#171;\u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f&#187; \u0432 2023. \u041d\u043e \u0412\u0412\u041f \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043b\u0436\u0430\u043b \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0443\u043c\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0438 \u0442\u0435\u043c\u043f\u0430\u043c\u0438. \u0420\u0430\u0437\u0431\u0438\u0440\u0430\u0435\u043c \u0447\u0435\u0442\u044b\u0440\u0435 \u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0435\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430 \u043d\u0430 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0443 2026 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430.<\/p>\n<p>\u0414\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435: GDPC1, T10Y2Y, INDPRO, ICSA \u0438\u0437 FRED. 2010-2026.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D0%92%D0%92%D0%9F_%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82_15_-_%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B7_%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8\"><\/span>\u0412\u0412\u041f: \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442 1.5% <span class=\"hyphen\"><code>-<\/code><\/span> \u0431\u0435\u0437 \u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0438<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/overtonfx.ru\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/img_w1_gdp.png\" alt=\"\u0420\u043e\u0441\u0442 \u0412\u0412\u041f 2010-2026\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">\u0420\u0438\u0441. 1. \u041a\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442 \u0440\u0435\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0412\u0412\u041f \u0432 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0432\u043e\u043c \u0438\u0441\u0447\u0438\u0441\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438, %. \u041a\u0440\u0430\u0441\u043d\u044b\u0439 <span class=\"hyphen\"><code>-<\/code><\/span> \u043e\u0442\u0440\u0438\u0446\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0439. \u0418\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0438\u043a: FRED.<\/p>\n<p>\u0412\u0412\u041f \u043d\u0438 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0443 \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b \u043e\u0442\u0440\u0438\u0446\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043a\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435 II \u043a\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0430 2022. \u0422\u0435\u0445\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f (\u0434\u0432\u0430 \u043a\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u0441\u043f\u0430\u0434\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0440\u044f\u0434) \u0432 2022 \u0431\u044b\u043b\u0430 \u0437\u0430\u0444\u0438\u043a\u0441\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0430, \u043d\u043e NBER \u0435\u0451 \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0437\u043d\u0430\u043b \u0438\u0437-\u0437\u0430 \u0441\u0438\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u0442\u0440\u0443\u0434\u0430. \u0422\u0435\u043a\u0443\u0449\u0438\u0439 \u0442\u0435\u043c\u043f +1.5% <span class=\"hyphen\"><code>-<\/code><\/span> \u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435 \u0442\u0440\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0430 2010-\u0445 (2.5%), \u043d\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0439.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D0%9A%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%B4%D0%BE%D1%85%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8_%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%8F_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8\"><\/span>\u041a\u0440\u0438\u0432\u0430\u044f \u0434\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438: \u0438\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0441\u0438\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0430\u0434\u0438<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/overtonfx.ru\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/img_w2_yield.png\" alt=\"\u0421\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434 10Y-2Y\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">\u0420\u0438\u0441. 2. \u0421\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434 10Y-2Y Treasuries. \u041a\u0440\u0430\u0441\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0437\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0432\u043a\u0430 <span class=\"hyphen\"><code>-<\/code><\/span> \u0438\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0441\u0438\u044f. \u0418\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0438\u043a: FRED.<\/p>\n<p>\u0422\u0435\u043a\u0443\u0449\u0438\u0439 \u0441\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434: +0.45 \u043f.\u043f. \u0418\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0434\u043b\u0438\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044c \u0441 \u0438\u044e\u043b\u044f 2022 \u043f\u043e \u043d\u043e\u044f\u0431\u0440\u044c 2024 <span class=\"hyphen\"><code>-<\/code><\/span> \u0440\u0435\u043a\u043e\u0440\u0434\u043d\u044b\u0435 29 \u043c\u0435\u0441\u044f\u0446\u0435\u0432. \u0418\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438 \u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u043d\u0430\u0447\u0438\u043d\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 12-18 \u043c\u0435\u0441\u044f\u0446\u0435\u0432 \u041f\u041e\u0421\u041b\u0415 \u0432\u044b\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0438\u0437 \u0438\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0441\u0438\u0438. \u0415\u0441\u043b\u0438 \u043f\u0430\u0442\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043d \u0441\u0440\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0442\u0430\u0435\u0442, \u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0434\u0451\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043d\u0430 II-III \u043a\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430\u043b 2026. \u041d\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430 \u0412\u0412\u041f \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0451\u0442, \u0430 \u0431\u0435\u0437\u0440\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0446\u0430 \u043d\u0438\u0437\u043a\u0430\u044f <span class=\"hyphen\"><code>-<\/code><\/span> &#171;\u044d\u0442\u043e\u0442 \u0440\u0430\u0437 \u0434\u0440\u0443\u0433\u043e\u0439&#187;?<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BC%D1%8B%D1%88%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C_11_-_%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F\"><\/span>\u041f\u0440\u043e\u043c\u044b\u0448\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c: +1.1% <span class=\"hyphen\"><code>-<\/code><\/span> \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0433\u043d\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/overtonfx.ru\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/img_w3_indpro.png\" alt=\"\u041f\u0440\u043e\u043c\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">\u0420\u0438\u0441. 3. \u0413\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u043c\u044b\u0448\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430 INDPRO, %. \u0418\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0438\u043a: FRED.<\/p>\n<p>\u041f\u0440\u043e\u043c\u044b\u0448\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0451\u0442 \u043d\u0430 1.1% \u0432 \u0433\u043e\u0434. \u0417\u0430\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0439, \u043d\u043e \u043d\u0435 \u0441\u043f\u0430\u0434. \u041f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0441\u0435\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0440 \u043d\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432 \u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0438 \u0441 \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0446\u0430 2022 (PMI \u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435 50 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0443\u044e \u0447\u0430\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0438), \u043d\u043e \u0443\u0441\u043b\u0443\u0433\u0438 (80% \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043a\u0438) \u043a\u043e\u043c\u043f\u0435\u043d\u0441\u0438\u0440\u0443\u044e\u0442 \u0441\u043b\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u043f\u0440\u043e\u043c\u044b\u0448\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D0%97%D0%B0%D1%8F%D0%B2%D0%BA%D0%B8_%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B8%D0%B5_203K_-_%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BC%D0%B0\"><\/span>\u0417\u0430\u044f\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043e\u0431\u0438\u0435: 203K <span class=\"hyphen\"><code>-<\/code><\/span> \u043d\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/overtonfx.ru\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/img_w4_claims.png\" alt=\"\u0417\u0430\u044f\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043e\u0431\u0438\u0435\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">\u0420\u0438\u0441. 4. \u041f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u0438\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0437\u0430\u044f\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043e\u0431\u0438\u0435 \u043f\u043e \u0431\u0435\u0437\u0440\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0446\u0435, 4-\u043d\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043d\u044f\u044f, \u0442\u044b\u0441. \u0418\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0438\u043a: FRED.<\/p>\n<p>\u0422\u0435\u043a\u0443\u0449\u0438\u0439 \u0443\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u043d\u044c: 203K. \u041f\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0433 \u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0438 <span class=\"hyphen\"><code>-<\/code><\/span> 300K (\u0432\u044b\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0435\u043d \u0441\u0435\u0440\u044b\u043c). \u0417\u0430\u044f\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0443\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043d\u044f \u0432\u0435\u0441\u044c \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0438\u0434\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0438\u043e\u0434. \u0420\u044b\u043d\u043e\u043a \u0442\u0440\u0443\u0434\u0430 \u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0451\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0433\u043b\u0430\u0432\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0430\u0440\u0433\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u043c \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432 \u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0438: \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430 \u0437\u0430\u044f\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435 300K, \u043f\u043e\u0442\u0440\u0435\u0431\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c \u0438\u043c\u0435\u0435\u0442 \u0440\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0442\u0443 \u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043b\u0436\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0442\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0442\u044c.<\/p>\n<p>\u0412\u044b\u0432\u043e\u0434: \u043d\u0430 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0443 2026 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b \u0443\u043a\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0442 \u043d\u0430 \u0437\u0430\u043c\u0435\u0434\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435, \u043d\u043e \u043d\u0435 \u043d\u0430 \u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044e. \u041a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u0440\u0438\u0441\u043a <span class=\"hyphen\"><code>-<\/code><\/span> \u0435\u0441\u043b\u0438 \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043e\u043a \u0442\u0440\u0443\u0434\u0430 \u043d\u0430\u0447\u043d\u0451\u0442 \u0441\u043b\u0430\u0431\u0435\u0442\u044c (\u0437\u0430\u044f\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u0432\u044b\u0448\u0435 300K), \u043f\u043e\u0442\u0440\u0435\u0431\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0445\u043e\u0434\u044b \u0443\u043f\u0430\u0434\u0443\u0442, \u0438 &#171;\u043c\u044f\u0433\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430&#187; \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0432\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432 \u0436\u0451\u0441\u0442\u043a\u0443\u044e.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0420\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043c\u044f\u0433\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430: \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0442 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b \u0432 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0435 2026 \u0421 2022 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u0441\u0442\u044b \u0441\u043f\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0442: \u0436\u0434\u0451\u0442 \u043b\u0438 \u0421\u0428\u0410 \u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0424\u0420\u0421 \u0443\u0434\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043e\u0431\u0435\u0441\u043f\u0435\u0447\u0438\u0442\u044c &#171;\u043c\u044f\u0433\u043a\u0443\u044e \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0443&#187;? \u0418\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0441\u0438\u044f \u043a\u0440\u0438\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u0434\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438, \u043f\u0430\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u043c\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430 \u0438 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442 \u0437\u0430\u044f\u0432\u043e\u043a \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043e\u0431\u0438\u0435 \u043a\u0440\u0438\u0447\u0430\u043b\u0438 &#171;\u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f&#187; \u0432 2023. \u041d\u043e \u0412\u0412\u041f \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043b\u0436\u0430\u043b \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0443\u043c\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0438 \u0442\u0435\u043c\u043f\u0430\u043c\u0438. \u0420\u0430\u0437\u0431\u0438\u0440\u0430\u0435\u043c \u0447\u0435\u0442\u044b\u0440\u0435 \u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0435\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430 \u043d\u0430 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0443 2026 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430. \u0414\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435: GDPC1, &#8230; <a title=\"\u0420\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043c\u044f\u0433\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430: \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0442 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b \u0432 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0435 2026\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/overtonfx.ru\/blog\/us-recession-risk-dashboard\/\" aria-label=\"\u0411\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0435 \u043d\u0430 \u0420\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043c\u044f\u0433\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430: \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0442 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b \u0432 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0435 2026\">\u0427\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0434\u0430\u043b\u0435\u0435<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4535,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-novosti-s-rynkov"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u0420\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043c\u044f\u0433\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430: \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0442 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b \u0432 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0435 2026 | \u0424\u043e\u0440\u0435\u043a\u0441 \u0431\u043b\u043e\u0433<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/overtonfx.ru\/blog\/us-recession-risk-dashboard\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u0420\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043c\u044f\u0433\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430: \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0442 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b \u0432 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0435 2026 | \u0424\u043e\u0440\u0435\u043a\u0441 \u0431\u043b\u043e\u0433\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u0420\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043c\u044f\u0433\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430: \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0442 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b \u0432 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0435 2026 \u0421 2022 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u0441\u0442\u044b \u0441\u043f\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0442: \u0436\u0434\u0451\u0442 \u043b\u0438 \u0421\u0428\u0410 \u0440\u0435\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0424\u0420\u0421 \u0443\u0434\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043e\u0431\u0435\u0441\u043f\u0435\u0447\u0438\u0442\u044c &#171;\u043c\u044f\u0433\u043a\u0443\u044e \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0443&#187;? \u0418\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0441\u0438\u044f \u043a\u0440\u0438\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u0434\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438, 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